Bitcoin in 2025: Volatility, Trump’s Policies, and the Future of the Market

1. Bitcoin Volatility in the 9th Week of 2025

Bitcoin faced a weekly decline of 14.33% , fluctuating between $86,031 and $95,152 , driven by President Donald Trump’s announcement of a Strategic Cryptocurrency Reserve . However, the market quickly reversed into a correction, hitting $80,000 (below the 200-day moving average of $82,500 ). This volatility reflects:

• Regulatory pressure : Trump’s tariff policies increase costs and uncertainties.

• Macroeconomic fragility : Mixed inflation and consumption data in the U.S.

• Profit-taking : Investors sold positions after a rally to $95,152 linked to the Reserve announcement.

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2. Strategic Cryptocurrency Reserve: The "Sell the Fact" Move and Implications

Trump announced a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a Digital Asset Stockpile (including Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, and Ripple). Despite initial optimism, markets reacted with a classic “sell the fact” pattern, with prices retracing below pre-announcement levels.

Reserve Details:

• Bitcoin as “digital gold” : The U.S. government now treats BTC as a strategic asset, using confiscated coins to avoid taxpayer costs.

• No new purchases : The reserve excludes open-market buys, limiting demand-side pressure.

• Market impact :

  • Bitcoin : Showed resilience due to liquidity.

  • Altcoins (ETH, SOL, ADA) : Suffered drops exceeding 50% from cycle highs.

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3. Investor Behavior: Short-Term vs. Long-Term Holders

• Short-Term Holders (STH) :

  • STH-MVRV of 0.9155 : Indicates 20% losses for recent investors.

  • Psychological pressure : Forced selling risks intensify downward pressure.

• Long-Term Holders (LTH) :

  • Reduced sales : From 3.8% to 1.4% in March, signaling potential accumulation.

  • Market stabilization : Fewer BTC on exchanges ease selling pressure.

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4. Economic Indicators and the Fed’s Role

U.S. Macroeconomic Data:

• Manufacturing PMI : Dropped to 50.3 , signaling industrial slowdown.

• Services PMI : Rose to 53.5 , driven by healthcare and finance.

• Unemployment : U-6 rate hit 8% , reflecting underemployment.

Fed Decisions:

• Rates held at 4.25–4.50% : Expect 3 cuts by late 2025 to avoid recession.

• Yield curve inversion : 10-year Treasury yields below Fed rates signal recession risks.

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5. 2025 Outlook: Risks and Opportunities

• Risks :

  • Trump’s tariffs : Could worsen inflation and weaken consumer demand.

  • Housing market : High mortgage rates pressure sales.

• Opportunities :

  • LTH accumulation : Reduced selling hints at a potential market bottom.

  • Bitcoin as reserve asset : Strategic Reserve may attract institutional inflows.

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Bitcoin volatility, Strategic Cryptocurrency Reserve, Trump policies, Fed interest rates, economic indicators.