Bitcoin in 2025: Volatility, Trump’s Policies, and the Future of the Market
Descrição do post.Check out our analysis of Bitcoin's future in 2025! In this post, we discuss the recent volatility of BTC, driven by Trump’s policies and the creation of the Strategic Cryptocurrency Reserve. Explore the implications of this reserve on the market, the difference in behavior between short-term and long-term investors, as well as economic outlooks and the Fed’s decisions. Discover the risks and opportunities for Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market in a time of economic uncertainty. Stay informed on trends and learn how to protect your investments!
Elias Junio
3/11/20252 min leer


1. Bitcoin Volatility in the 9th Week of 2025
Bitcoin faced a weekly decline of 14.33% , fluctuating between $86,031 and $95,152 , driven by President Donald Trump’s announcement of a Strategic Cryptocurrency Reserve . However, the market quickly reversed into a correction, hitting $80,000 (below the 200-day moving average of $82,500 ). This volatility reflects:
Regulatory pressure : Trump’s tariff policies increase costs and uncertainties.
Macroeconomic fragility : Mixed inflation and consumption data in the U.S.
Profit-taking : Investors sold positions after a rally to $95,152 linked to the Reserve announcement.
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2. Strategic Cryptocurrency Reserve: The "Sell the Fact" Move and Implications
Trump announced a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a Digital Asset Stockpile (including Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, and Ripple). Despite initial optimism, markets reacted with a classic “sell the fact” pattern, with prices retracing below pre-announcement levels.
Reserve Details:
Bitcoin as “digital gold” : The U.S. government now treats BTC as a strategic asset, using confiscated coins to avoid taxpayer costs.
No new purchases : The reserve excludes open-market buys, limiting demand-side pressure.
Market impact :
Bitcoin : Showed resilience due to liquidity.
Altcoins (ETH, SOL, ADA) : Suffered drops exceeding 50% from cycle highs.
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3. Investor Behavior: Short-Term vs. Long-Term Holders
Short-Term Holders (STH) :
STH-MVRV of 0.9155 : Indicates 20% losses for recent investors.
Psychological pressure : Forced selling risks intensify downward pressure.
Long-Term Holders (LTH) :
Reduced sales : From 3.8% to 1.4% in March, signaling potential accumulation.
Market stabilization : Fewer BTC on exchanges ease selling pressure.
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4. Economic Indicators and the Fed’s Role
U.S. Macroeconomic Data:
Manufacturing PMI : Dropped to 50.3 , signaling industrial slowdown.
Services PMI : Rose to 53.5 , driven by healthcare and finance.
Unemployment : U-6 rate hit 8% , reflecting underemployment.
Fed Decisions:
Rates held at 4.25–4.50% : Expect 3 cuts by late 2025 to avoid recession.
Yield curve inversion : 10-year Treasury yields below Fed rates signal recession risks.
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5. 2025 Outlook: Risks and Opportunities
Risks :
Trump’s tariffs : Could worsen inflation and weaken consumer demand.
Housing market : High mortgage rates pressure sales.
Opportunities :
LTH accumulation : Reduced selling hints at a potential market bottom.
Bitcoin as reserve asset : Strategic Reserve may attract institutional inflows.
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Bitcoin volatility, Strategic Cryptocurrency Reserve, Trump policies, Fed interest rates, economic indicators.